Welcome to The Compass, a weekly exploration of data-driven trends shaping the health economy with Trilliant's SVP, Market Strategy and Chief Research Officer, Sanjula Jain, Ph.D. 

     

    Figure 1_09.19.21

    Amazon’s Expanding Healthcare Footprint Uniquely Positioned to Meet Consumer Preferences in New Markets
    Sanjula Jain, Ph.D., September 19, 2021

    Traditional healthcare providers (e.g., hospitals and health systems) are facing growing competition from new entrants, namely retail brands such as Walmart and Amazon. Although healthcare was not the founding pillar of these companies, their low unit prices and strong consumer loyalty uniquely position them to succeed in the post-pandemic health economy. 

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    Seemingly Similar Markets are Dissimilar in Projected Demand
    Sanjula Jain, Ph.D., September 12, 2021

    The notion of benchmarking organizations against others has become a mainstay in healthcare, especially among hospitals and health systems. As an industry, we have become accustomed to leveraging quality scores and external rankings relative to any number of methodologies from U.S. News & World Report and The Leapfrog Group to CMS’ Star Ratings and Hospital Compare, to name a few.

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    The Washington Compass_09.08.21-1

    THE WASHINGTON COMPASS:
    T
    he Government’s Role as the Largest Payer of Healthcare Services is Growing

    Sanjula Jain, Ph.D., September 8, 2021

    With nearly half of all Americans covered by Medicare or Medicaid, the U.S. government is and will continue to be the single largest payer (and regulator) of healthcare services. As of March 2021, more than 82M Americans were covered by Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Plan (CHIP), representing a 20M increase from average 2019 enrollment levels. Coverage shifts due to unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic were a contributing factor to this spike in enrollment. Additionally, enrollment in either traditional Medicare or Medicare Advantage totaled almost 63M as of July 2020, a figure that is only projected to increase as the Baby Boomers continue to age into Medicare.

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    Variation in Intra-Market Demand Demonstrates How Local Healthcare Really Is
    Sanjula Jain, Ph.D., August 29, 2021

    As discussed in prior research, burden of disease is not directly correlated to demand for healthcare services. No two health systems, markets, or facilities will experience the same demand curve, irrespective of a general increase in burden of disease at the national level. Accurately predicting demand requires analyzing the nuances of both consumer characteristics, such as demographics and psychographics, and care trends, such as incidence rates, within a given market.

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    Figure 2_08.22.21-v2

    Downstream Share of Care from Telehealth Does Not Suggest Strong Consumer Loyalty
    Sanjula Jain, Ph.D., August 22, 2021

    The recent growth in telehealth utilization is largely attributable to the law of small numbers, with utilization already beginning to taper. These trends are reinforced by quarterly reports from publicly traded telehealth companies, which is further reason to evaluate the notion that telehealth is a “digital front door.” 

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    Figure1_08.15.21-1

    Analyzing the Psychographic Distribution of a Locality Allows for More Targeted Vaccine Messaging Strategies
    Sanjula Jain, Ph.D., August 15, 2021

    Following the authorization of COVID-19 vaccines, experts have examined the characteristics of regions with low rates of vaccination. Much has been published on the reasons why individuals are delaying or foregoing vaccination, with concerns ranging from the timing of vaccine development and pending FDA approval to perceived safety.

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    08.08.21_Figure1

    Women are Less Loyal to Provider Networks than Men
    Sanjula Jain, Ph.D., August 8, 2021

    Women typically utilize more healthcare services than men according to the U.S. Department of Labor and make approximately 80% of the healthcare decisions for their families. As a result, it is commonly believed that if providers win the heart of Mom, they win the family.

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    The Unintended Consequences of the Stark Law on Health System Strategy
    Hal Andrews, August 1, 2021

    Most health system executives, and all health system attorneys, understand the importance of compliance with the Stark Law.

    What most C-suite executives fail to realize is the pernicious effect of a law about physician compensation on strategic planning. The late Michael Sachs skillfully leveraged the Stark Law definition of a “market" into a franchise, creating a model of demand whose key variable was a list of ZIP Codes applied to a constant of national demand. I know, because I bought that report from HCIA-Sachs/Solucient/Truven dozens of times in the 1990s and early 2000s. Only later did I realize that I was buying the same answer every time.

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    Specialists are More Loyal Than Primary Care Physicians 
    Sanjula Jain, Ph.D., July 25, 2021

    As posed most recently, health system executives must ask themselves “is our goal to be in the hospital business, or rather to be in the healthcare delivery business?”

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    Figure2

    AAMC’s Projections Confirm Declining Growth in Demand 
    Sanjula Jain, Ph.D., July 18, 2021

    Last week, we shared our forecasts for the average rate of growth for surgical services year over year through 2029. With demand for healthcare services projected to be flat to declining, inevitably the next question becomes whether physician supply matches that demand.

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    07.11.21_Figure1-1

    Burden of Disease ≠ Demand for Healthcare Services
    Sanjula Jain, Ph.D., July 11, 2021

    For decades, our industry has operated under the assumption that burden of disease is directly correlated to demand for healthcare services. Yet, analysis of both national and market-level data reveals fallacies in this widely held belief.   

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    Figure2.Medicaid Birth Rates

    Competition for Commercially Insured Share of Care is Intensifying
    Sanjula Jain, Ph.D., June 27, 2021

    Last week, CMS released its latest Medicaid enrollment numbers reporting a record number of enrollees during the pandemic. An additional 9.7M individuals enrolled in Medicaid from February 2020 to January 2021 totaling approximately 73.8M Medicaid beneficiaries at the beginning of 2021. The projected growth in the nation’s safety net program compounded by more Baby Boomers aging into Medicare will significantly reduce the share of patients covered by commercial insurance.

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    Figure 2-3

    Leading Consumer Brands are Best Positioned to Meet Consumer Preferences for Omni-Channel Care Delivery 
    Sanjula Jain, Ph.D., June 20, 2021

    In the aftermath of telehealth volumes spiking during the pandemic, a number of established companies have entered the market, joining early market entrants such as Teladoc and Amwell. The net effect, as previously written, is telehealth supply is already exceeding consumer demand.

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    Report Cover_Arrow

    REPORT // 2021 Trends Defining the Post-Pandemic Health Economy 
    Sanjula Jain, Ph.D., June 16, 2021

    The health economy creates more data than any other part of the economy. As an industry we are prone to gather and analyze data in silos, make decisions using data that is more “directionally correct” than statistically valid, and extrapolate trends that may be true of only 10% of the population to 100% of the population.

    Anchored in trends that are grounded in facts about the past and sophisticated machine learning models about the future, the inaugural 2021 Trends Shaping the Health Economy Report intends to offer all of us in the industry a foundational framework for decision making.

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    Sneak Peek: 2021 Trends Defining the Post-Pandemic Health Economy 
    Sanjula Jain, Ph.D., June 13, 2021

    Data without context is just noise, but data as a story is insight that enables action. It seems every few weeks there is a new headline trend - whether it be MedPAC’s latest payment rate update, the AAMC’s physician shortage estimates, Rock Health’s report on digital health investments, or McKinsey’s survey of consumer preferences for virtual care, to name a few. While I always enjoy digging into the richness of those data, the challenge is discerning what each discrete finding means in the context of where trends are headed at the health economy level.

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    FIGURE 1 - Number of Brands Affiliated with Consumers by Industry_v2

    Patients are Consumers, and Consumers are not Loyal: An Overview of Loyalty in Healthcare vs. Other Industries
    Sanjula Jain, Ph.D., June 6, 2021

    Underlying many executive leadership and board discussions over the last few years has been the core question of “how can we be more consumer focused as an organization?” Every stakeholder from health systems to pharma companies is enacting strategies to shift our historically physician-centric healthcare system to one that is built around the individual.

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    FIGURE 2_Telehealth Users by Gender and Age_FINAL

    Post-Pandemic Telehealth Supply Exceeds Consumer Demand  
    Sanjula Jain, Ph.D., May 23, 2021

    It is no secret that telehealth utilization increased exponentially in the past year. Several researchers have attempted to quantify and characterize the magnitude of the telehealth spike, each leveraging a different calculation methodology. In our analysis of all-payer claims, we observe a 1015% increase in telehealth visits at the peak of the pandemic. As a result of the unprecedented increase in demand, we’ve seen health systems, payers, employers, and Wall Street financiers aggressively pursue telehealth expansion strategies based on (1) a belief that crisis accelerates existing trends, and (2) surveys indicating that both physicians and individuals who used telehealth during the pandemic are more likely to continue to use it.

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    Percent Deviation from the Average-2

    Demographics ≠ Consumer Loyalty  
    Sanjula Jain, Ph.D., May 16, 2021

    As consumer choice increases with the increase in provider supply, consumers will increasingly "split" their healthcare consumption across a number of brands. Healthcare providers that understand the psychology underlying the consumer’s decision-making process will be better positioned to earn the loyalty of healthcare consumers with abundant choices.

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    Health Economy-1

    As Supply Increases, Consumer Loyalty is at Risk
    Sanjula Jain, Ph.D., May 9, 2021

    In this week's debut issue, we introduce the health economy framework and examine the impact of growing provider supply on consumer loyalty. The finding: Even though loyalty varies by CBSA, by in large, earning the consumer's share of care is going to become a lot more challenging.

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