If you build it, will they come?

Health systems have been asking that question since Ronald Reagan was President, using a data model developed before the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Past is not prologue, especially in forecasting consumer demand for healthcare services. Capital is increasingly scarce, which means that making decisions about capital investments based upon your share of inpatients in a five-mile radius of your current location is increasingly risky. Consumers have an overwhelming number of options for care, the majority of which do not include being admitted to your hospital.

The next 10 years will be the most challenging decade for hospitals since Ben Franklin founded Pennsylvania Hospital. In order to survive, and hopefully thrive, every health system needs a demand forecast model that changes quarterly based on changes in your market – not a model that changes once a year based on a data model that you don’t understand.

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